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HSX.com: H$40M

February 14, 2005 By Glenn Turner

I don't play these types of games. I don't have a pre-occupation with earning money, nor do I have a penchant for numbers. I normally eschew internet-based games. I've never savored placing my initials on a high score board, in an arcade or elsewhere. And I don't particularly care for most Hollywood film fare. But yet...

HSX - front page activity

My first trade on the Hollywood Stock Exchange took place one late night on February 25th. I sipped a whiskey & coke in front of my computer monitor while looking for something to whittle away a chunk of time when the Hollywood Stock Exchange flashed into my head. I recalled a few friends bragging about their HSX blockbuster investments, and typed hsx.com into my browser window. I perused the site, signed up and proceded to buy 25,000 shares of Club Dread (CDRED) as a bit of an experiment. Did I have any idea what I was doing? Definitely not. The stock prices looked like arbitrary numbers haphazardly strewn across my web browser because I had no comprehension of how the prices on the screen matched up with estimated box office gross. I thought the price ($14.23) sounded good and thrifty. Sadly, that was just the first of many mistakes.

Since that initial trade, I've finally grown to understand the basics of the game: each dollar that a stock is worth represents a million dollars of box office earnings. Basically, my purchase of Club Dread predicted that it would make at least $14,230,000 within its first four weeks of release. Unfortunately, Club Dread opened to the tune of $3,035,688, causing the stock to adjust down to $8.84 and losing me quite a bit of fake cash. Oops.

HSX - front page activity

It's all a matter of time, even down to a matter of minutes. Checking the Market Lab two minutes late can cost you thousands of dollars. Pressing the snooze alarm a few times too many Friday morning can result in being locked out of trading this week's new films. Aren't up on the latest Hollywood news? Kiss loads of potential profit good-bye. For a slacker like myself that could be perceived as an undesirable quality, but I cope. In some ways HSX lends a slight bit of structure to my inherently non-linear week: On Sunday I evaluate re-shorting the recently adjusted stocks, Monday I check out Starbonds for last-minute deals, Tuesday and Wednesday I lurk on the forums searching for any inside tips, or potential viewpoints that may sway my purchasing decisions for Thursday. Thursday nights I mull over the weekly openers and do a bit of reading at The Numbers and Box Office Mojo, trying to learn a bit from prior releases. On Friday I check the theater reports delieverd by HSX forumgoers and place my final opener bets, whereas Saturday gives me some commission-free time to tidy up my port and start looking for deals.

In many ways, the Hollywood Stock Exchange reminds me of my one month fixation with the 'errand simulator', Animal Crossing. For that one month, I religiously squared away a small bit of time daily to nuture my home and community, to go pulling weeds, write notes to my neighbors and even fish. However, I quickly lagged behind in my Monotown duties. Eventually I purposely ignored the game, neglecting the weeds that surely must have overtaken my carefully pruned land. Within a handful of months I had ceased playing the game all together. In comparison, I've spent approximately a year playing the Hollywood Stock Exchange and I'm still going strong. In fact, January 15th was the reset day for the year-to-date leaderboard and on that date my account rested around the #86 slot (falling a bit from its prior mid-70s position) - not too shabby if I do say so myself. However, competition is not exactly my motivation for continuing with the game.

I've persisted in playing HSX because cultural zeitgeist is a facinating, often unpredictable matter and HSX exemplifies that. The majority of film securities I purchase, I'll never even see, but to be able to point at a movie (or often more importantly a film's advertising campaign) and say 'this movie will resonate with the American viewing public, and they will turn out in droves to see it', and thereby be validated by the power of the dollar, is a confidence-boosting experience. You begin to hone your eye for what appeals to viewers as well as when a studio knows they have a potential bomb on there hands, as opposed to pushing a film they honestly believe in. You start thinking about movies in terms of 'people just haven't tired of PG-13 horror yet' or 'JEGAR isn't a draw', rather than empathizing with films on a personal level.

Hard to believe that ELEKT was once trading at $65

And while that may sound clinical and detached, it's all part of playing the game. One of the hard and fast rules of the market is to not let your personal feelings about a movie cloud your judgement. My adverse reaction to the blatent & cheap use of a cat's yowl in GRUDG's trailer severely turned me off of the film. It partially caused me to lose fistfuls of H$ as I severely misjudged how the public would view the ads. You have to distance yourself and view the hype, the propaganda, the dozens and dozens of press releases, posters, teasers and trailers as part of the tapestry that weaves a film's initial weekend box office. Afterall come Friday, that's what has convinced hundreds of thousands of people to attend screenings across the nation and bask in the flicker of a shared experience. Each weekend we, the players of HSX, use all of these clues to place a bet, to gamble on these weekly litmus tests of American taste.

HSX - front page activity

As a film fan, I have to ask myself whether playing HSX is healthy, whether it's a positive thing to gamble on films that I don't care about - even if it's with fake money. Somehow, in the grand scheme of things can my ELEKT short be seen as a form of protest? And even if so, is it fair to be judging these films often before they're even complete? It's a widely known fact that HSX sells their market information - the data is eagerly sought after by studios that just love to scrutinize minutiae. What sort of studio contemplation do my 50,000 long shares of HOWLS buy me? Should I feel guilty about holding HITCH long, or should I be flaggellating myself for even thinking about trying to profit (in any way, shape or form) off of the good intentions of mediocre filmmakers and the studios that try to exploit them and American audiences?

This dissonance occasionally rears its head when I'm going over the weekly openers. I really don't want to encourage another vapid Hilary Duff vehicle, however I do want to succeed in the game. My desire to play HSX and play it well trump my distaste for the films I invest in, and even the repercussions of my trades. Again, is this healthy? It certainly doesn't sound like it, but what can I do? I'm just one player in this market. Besides, I made H$40 million dollars last year, and it's just too much fun to stop now.

HSX - front page activity

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There are no comments available for ‘HSX.com: H$40M’ yet!

#1 Dublyner Feb 15, 2005 05:55am

Are you going to apply for fund manager when you hit 50?

#2 Glenn Turner Feb 16, 2005 03:22pm

It's doubtful. I still have a lot to learn!

#3 Anonymous Feb 20, 2005 06:50am

I'm working my way back up...I blew a few million from another account, and now I'm putting into good use the lessons learned from playing too hard.

#4 hobbie Feb 20, 2005 06:51am

Crap, I forgot to login.

#5 R. LeFeuvre Feb 22, 2005 03:38am

G. Turner wrote:
You start thinking about movies in terms of 'people just haven't tired of PG-13 horror yet' or 'JEGAR isn't a draw', rather than empathizing with films on a personal level.

I specifically recall several, after shorting a film, praying that it would flop in the theater. Even if it was a movie that I wanted to see! If I had a film that needed to do poorly for good profit I looked forward to reports of a bomb.

Kinda cruel... but you know... I gotta win

#6 Stilgar Feb 22, 2005 12:15pm

It sounds a lot like fantasy football but with movies. In FF you'll find yourself rooting against your own team so that the QB, etc. will do well and give you points.

#7 hobbie Mar 8, 2005 07:15am

I just did that cold cash thing, where you click to partners, and possibly win 50K.

I won 50k just now.